The NFL bye week can be a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough focus to. In the event you consider yourself a novice sports bettor, and also you spot the particular betting line containing you quickly heading to Google News plus your favorite sports stat site to ascertain if a player is injured, don’t forget also to notice if it team’s opponent is originating off a bye. For all those advanced sports bettors dealing with the bye week, I’ll cover some advanced level research and insights regarding the bye in the following paragraphs. Just before getting to that, I’ll address some general points for any individual uncertain what a bye week is, or on what weeks teams have byes.
As you probably know, sbobet in thailand consists of each team playing 16 games. Way back in 1990, the league changed to a 17 week season as a way to profit more from television advertising. This left each team having a single week off at some stage in the season termed as a bye week. The bye week was once random spanning across the entire season, but in 2004 to generate a more uniform agenda for the playoff race, the format was changed. How it works now is bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. As being a sports bettor, you’ll must pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, while they have the benefit of extra time to rest, get healthy, practice and prepare.
While we won’t include this in your analysis, an additional area recreational bettors need to concentrate on is Thursday games. Starting week 10 of the NFL season you will find a single Thursday night game, and on Thanksgiving there are two additional Thursday day games. Because of this on Thursday, teams will often be playing on short rest, which is often the case both for teams; therefore it is not something to be concerned about. Where it will become a problem is the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and definately will obtain a similar advantage to the main one they may have from the bye week. Make sure when coming up with bets on the NFL to pay for attention both to teams coming off of the bye, and also to teams coming off a Thursday game.
Due to the fact this isn’t a write-up about statistical handicapping models, a subject which 95% of readers may find too advanced, I won’t get into it in a lot more detail than to produce a single statement and then support it. That statement: the higher a team is, the greater number of they enjoy the bye week. This may not be a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis the best odds makers understand. To give you a tiny clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye is a multiplier depending on power rankings. All teams enjoy the bye week, but just how much they benefit is proportional to how good of any team they are.
If the above statement is in all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share some fundamental stats regarding how well teams coming from the bye week have fared that will assist you know the lines a little better.
Across the four latest seasons (2007-2010), in games where merely one team is originating off the bye, the team coming away from the bye carries a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 up against the spread.
Now, if you’re thinking of betting teams coming from the bye because the past four years they’ve covered 58.1% of the time, read my article about the current betting market. A method including that could been employed by in 2006; but, very likely than not, this trend won’t continue. It is because today NFL betting lines are significantly more efficient, and also the market will almost certainly correct itself.
The typical ATS data is nice, however it doesn’t inform us much unless we break it down further. After the process, an even more interesting trend appears. Utilizing the same 110 game sample, teams coming off of the bye week which can be favored have a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming from the bye use a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is rather small, but 15-1-2 up against the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To share a remote stat away from articles I wrote a few dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (across a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of the time.
To go back to and acquire better four year numbers for all favorites coming off of the bye, you can find 9 games missing from the 110 sample size I used. This is because 9 times since 2007 there were games where both teams were coming off the bye. (32×4=128), I bought the 110 sample size because 18 of the byes were not highly relevant to opening discussion.
The information here strongly supports that good teams benefit from the bye a lot more than the market is offering them credit for. I have faith that that because only good teams are favored on the highway in the NFL. Using just road favorites is quirky, however, plus some might contemplate it “data mining”, even if this trend is well founded when dating back to much further than 2007. If we’re going to really consider this comprehensive, though, we have to take a look at subsets of all favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s included in the spread.